Fool’s Gold and the Search for Gems

If you play fantasy football you are an investor. You invest in players and their production is your R.O.I. (return on investment). Logical thinking tells you the best players will have the best R.O.I. and you will win games. There is a small problem with this. Football is the ultimate team sport and a player’s production is directly influenced by the production of their team.
 
Does anybody believe Sammy Watkins is a better wide receiver than OBJ?
 
So how did Watkins double OBJ’s production in Week 2?
 
The answer is simple. The Chiefs have an explosive offense, arguably the best in the league. They move the ball and score a ton of points. The Giants on the other hand are 31 of 32 in points scored this season and Eli’s pass protection is so bad it looks like he might be the next player to retire at halftime.

What am I saying? Sometimes the best player isn’t the best play for fantasy. Look for players on high powered offenses with good matchups to find value.

For an example look at player like James White. On the consistently great offensive of the New England Patriots it is likely he will outperform a player like David Johnson most Sundays. Johnson is a top-3 running back but plays with a very mediocre Arizona Cardinal offense.

An above average player on a good team will often outperform a great player on a bad team.
 
To sum it up remember that when you invest in a player, you also invest in their team. If the team can’t score a lot of points, it is unlikely that player will be able to either. As the saying goes, when you marry a girl, you marry her family. That same concept applies to fantasy football.

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